Bitwise Predicts Bitcoin Will Defy Historical Cycles in 2026
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan predicted that Bitcoin would break its historical four-year cycle and establish an all-time high in 2026, as the past patterns weaken and correct.
According to the Bitwise newsletter published on December 16, 2025, Bitcoin will reach an all-time high in 2026. This article will explore the reasons that will drive the cryptocurrency to a new record.
Bitcoin’s performance in 2026
Bitcoin (BTC) started trading positively in 2026, at approximately around $87,508 on January 1. The technical indicators suggest a bearish sentiment. As of January 29, BTC is trading around $87,842.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 36.008, placed at a lower neutral range, indicating a sell signal. In mid-January, RSI is above 70, suggesting overbuying that could occur before the pullback. Currently, BTC’s Moving Averages are below the set level, signalling strong Sell action.
The MACD indicator is currently at -106, a negative position, which reinforces a sell signal. The immediate support level is around $88,000, which is a crucial demand base.
Why does Bitwise say that Bitcoin will break the four-year market cycle?
Matt Hougan, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer, said that Bitcoin moves in a four-year cycle, in which three years record significant price surges and will be followed by a year of sharp pullback.
However, this won’t be happening in 2026. The Bitcoin halving event, interest rate cycles, and crypto market booms can correct the cycles.
Institutional Adoption And ETF Fuel Bullish Trend
According to the Bitwise newsletter, a steady flow of institutional money into crypto and the spot Bitcoin ETF can drive up inflows. Such platforms can accelerate allocations in 2026 in the backdrop of favorable U.S. regulations.
BTC is volatile to decline
Hougan said that Bitcoin volatility will decline in 2026. According to analysts, BTC volatility has declined in 2026 compared to 2025. He also noted that it would be less volatile than Nvidia stock throughout 2025, as ETFs can attract more investors.
Bitwise says that 2026 is a major year for Bitcoin, with strong returns, steadier price movements, and diversification opportunities for investors. It could reach a new high beyond the $126,080 record, which was set in October 2025.
Bitcoin’s correlation with stocks is diminishing
Bitcoin’s performance has been heavily related to stock prices. The assets immediately responded to economic factors, and BTC is viewed as a risk asset rather than a safe one. Bitwise expects Bitcoin’s correlation to equities to decline in 2026. It will be due to regulatory progress and increasing institutional adoption.
Final Thoughts
As we have seen, Bitwise predicts that 2026 will be a revolutionary year for Bitcoin. This year will end BTC’s four-year pattern of recording a new high. The main factors would be events such as Bitcoin halving, changes in interest rates, and ETF inflows. According to the prediction, BTC volatility will decrease in 2026, and its correlation with traditional stocks is expected to reduce. However, Bitcoin charts and technical indicators, such as RSI and EMAs, suggest mixed sentiments. Investors have to take every step with utmost caution and see whether Bitwise predictions are reliable.
